After 43 days, the government shutdown has ended. The weekend negotiations to secure enough support for a funding bill succeeded, but the outcome has left most congressional Democrats and many of the party’s supporters dissatisfied.
On its face, this deal isn’t a win for Democrats. It fails to extend ACA subsidies needed to prevent health insurance premiums from doubling for millions of Americans, and it gives the Republican trifecta a bailout with very little in return.
However, despite what many of the party’s elected officials and voters view as quite unfavorable terms, this deal may not be quite what it seems and could give congressional Democrats another, better opportunity to take a stand against the administration.
The pain was getting to be too much, and Republicans weren’t blinking.
Senators have a duty to their constituents; they have to try to keep them out of harm’s way. When stuck between a rock and a hard place — an end to ACA subsidies and the pain from increased disruption to essential services — eight Senate Democrats chose to satisfy needs of their constituents that the shutdown had endangered. SNAP had emerged as a pressure point to get Democrats to cave, with Trump even briefly threatening to withhold payments until the end of the shutdown, and perhaps these senators lacked confidence that the White House would ensure that payments were made. Disruptions to services and holiday travel could have made Democratic voters less supportive of a protracted fight. The base may have been willing to take a political gamble that could harm millions, but many supporters of stonewalling could have wavered if they suffered personal inconvenience, inevitably causing Senate Democrats to do the same.
There are two critical notes to make about the funding bill. Firstly, the composition of the vote. Just eight Senate Democrats voted in favor of the bill, the exact number needed for it to pass; these votes were only from senators who aren’t particularly vulnerable, either because they plan to retire or won’t be up for reelection in 2026. Every Senate Democrat who has been recently elevated by the party or floated as a presidential contender voted against the bill, meaning that none of them can be sullied by a vote that much of the base views as a mistake. Such a breakdown doesn’t happen by accident; everyone directly involved likely sees the politics of this fight with clear eyes. The second note is a clue that this fight may not be over. While the bill only funds the government through the end of January, it provides enough money to keep key programs, including SNAP and WIC, funded through next fall. With nearly a year’s worth of appropriations already made, these programs would not be threatened in the same way if the government were to shut down again early next year, making it easier for Democrats to stand their ground without endangering their constituents if they were to fight again.
Now, the conversation will move to Epstein and healthcare.
Because of the shutdown, congressional Republicans have thus far avoided a vote on releasing the Epstein files and succeeded in muddying the waters on healthcare. Now, with no way to avoid these questions, Republicans will have to contend with Trump’s relationship with Epstein and either sincerely work on healthcare or double costs for millions in broad daylight.
For the rest of the year, nearly every congressional Democrat will hit the airwaves with two claims: the Trump Administration is protecting pedophiles and failing to be transparent by refusing to release the Epstein files, and Republicans are attempting to jack up the cost of healthcare for millions of Americans. With the House back in session, a vote on releasing the Epstein files is on the horizon, which could reignite outrage from voters who were already deeply unsatisfied with the administration’s handling of the files. If Republicans then vote against extending the ACA subsidies, the year will end with a political hailstorm, one that could have been softened if they could point to the shutdown as a reason for the expiration. There is now nowhere for congressional Republicans to run or hide from the issue that has politically plagued the party for a decade, and it seems unlikely they will succeed in calming public outrage over the party’s approach to healthcare and transparency without changing their stances.
This shutdown left unfinished business that can be settled in the new year.
One major criticism levied by Democrats towards the funding bill and its proponents is that it left many major issues unsettled. The ACA subsidies are the obvious focus, but Democratic voters and elected officials remain deeply critical of Trump’s approach to governance. The president, in the eyes of his political opponents, has weaponized the executive branch, violated the separation of powers by arbitrarily holding funds that Congress has allocated, and has carried out an unjust crackdown on dissent and the civil rights of his people, among a laundry list of other grievances.
If Democrats wish to take a more oppositional stance, January 30th will be the time to do so. With less pressure on essential services and the end of holiday travel, they would be in a stronger position to hold the line without endangering their constituents.
Judgement should be reserved for now.
If Democrats have indeed kicked the can in favor of other fights this winter and a renewed shutdown fight in the new year, this deal may be viewed retrospectively as a politically savvy move. If this isn’t the case, then the base has every right to be angry — though the eight Senate Democrats who voted for the deal would probably urge their base to remain cognizant of the destruction that the shutdown was starting to wreak and the total unwillingness of their Republican counterparts to negotiate.
It’s too soon to tell what this deal really means. This may not be the end; in case it isn’t, critics on the left should reserve their judgment for the time being.
Image source: Win McNamee | Getty
